Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Lever is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 68%, edge +5.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Jake Lever

Melbourne

+5.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+5.8% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 27 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
12.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.4% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +5.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.4%—67.6%1.36+5.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jake Lever (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Lever is poised to shine in the upcoming game against St Kilda based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 12.6 disposals and a 5.8% edge, Lever's L5 average of 11 disposals, including 7 kicks, indicates his consistent involvement in play. His strong disposalefficiency of 93.2% and ability to gain 188 meters on average per game further support his capability to surpass the set line of 9.5 disposals. Lever's recent hit streak of 3 away games and a solid overall hit rate of 15/20 also suggest he's in good form. Expect Lever to continue his impactful performances away from home, making the Over 9.5 disposals bet a favorable choice for this matchup.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jake Lever averaged 13.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.5
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Jake Lever recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS7042
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide12071
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12040
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18071
21 Jul 24Fremantle15071
13 Jul 24Essendon16071
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12061
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions10010
19 May 24West Coast Eagles1010
9 May 24Carlton13053
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jake Lever average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jake Lever (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Lever is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 27 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.