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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 13.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 70%, implied 76%, edge +5.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:48AM UTC
AFL

Jake Bowey

Melbourne

+5.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 13.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
+5.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
17.8 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.2% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +5.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks82.2%69.5%76.3%1.44+5.9%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 13.5 player_kicks_over (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, you want someone who can not only hit their averages but also bring that extra spark when it matters. Jake Bowey fits that bill perfectly. Playing at the MCG, his stomping ground, against Carlton, Bowey is poised to shine. The model predicts him to tally 17.8 kicks, comfortably above the set line of 13.5. With a solid 5.9% edge and an implied probability of 76.3%, the signs point to Bowey delivering a kicking masterclass. His precision and ability to find the pill in traffic make him a reliable choice to surpass the line. Expect Bowey to roam the field with purpose, racking up possessions and driving the Demons forward. Betting on Bowey to go Over 13.5 kicks is a smart move for footy punters looking to snag a win on Saturday night.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jake Bowey averaged 16.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

16.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Jake Bowey recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood8011
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS23051
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs25043
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16081
21 Jul 24Fremantle15073
13 Jul 24Essendon13051
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12051
22 Jun 24North Melbourne13010
10 Jun 24Collingwood15060
2 Jun 24Fremantle22062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks 13.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 22.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 13.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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