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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Serong is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 68%, edge +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC
AFL

Jai Serong

Sydney Swans

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+2.1% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.6% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +2.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—68.5%1.42+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) Over 15.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jai Serong's recent form, it's clear he's been a standout for the Swans at home lately. With an average of 19.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he's been a midfield maestro, racking up kicks, handballs, and interceptions with ease. Against Port Adelaide, he's been even more dominant with an average of 11.3 disposals in their last encounters. Serong's efficiency and ability to gain crucial metres make him a key player to back for Over 15.5 disposals. With his current form and the home ground advantage at SCG, it seems like a safe bet to expect him to continue his high possession game against the Power.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jai Serong averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.2 marks per game across 5 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.2
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Serong recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide8014
19 May 24Port Adelaide7026
11 May 24St Kilda14033
28 Apr 24Sydney Swans2010
21 Apr 24North Melbourne11040
26 Aug 23Fremantle15070
20 Aug 23Melbourne6013
21 Aug 22Western Bulldogs0000
14 Aug 22Richmond4122
6 Aug 22Gold Coast SUNS9033
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jai Serong average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Serong is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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