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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 58%, implied 64%, edge +11.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:34AM UTC
AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

+11.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
+11.6% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
26.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.3% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap +11.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.3%58.1%63.7%1.72+11.6%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Jai Newcombe Over 22.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Hawthorn are both strong teams, but Fremantle has a slight advantage in getting the ball inside 50 more often. This means they are likely to create more scoring chances. Jai Newcombe has been solid at the MCG, averaging over 26 disposals in his last ten games. That shows he knows how to get his hands on the ball, especially when the pressure is on. Even though both teams are performing well lately, Newcombe's recent form makes him a great pick to go over 22.5 disposals. The biggest risk is that both teams are evenly matched in contested possessions, which could affect his chances. Still, with the way he's been playing, it looks promising for him to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jai Newcombe averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.9
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Newcombe recorded 31 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide31036
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs35194
24 Aug 24North Melbourne35151
18 Aug 24Richmond33175
11 Aug 24Carlton23062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30036
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows22253
20 Jul 24Collingwood25133
13 Jul 24Fremantle16118
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats15034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 22.5 Over -175 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 21.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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