Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Steele is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 80%, implied 77%, edge +3.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Jack Steele

Melbourne

+3.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+3.4% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
23.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.3% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +3.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.3%76.9%1.24+3.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jack Steele (Melbourne) Over 19.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliability on the footy field, Jack Steele is a name that resonates with consistency. Heading into the clash against Hawthorn, Steele's recent form suggests he's primed to shine. Over his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging an impressive 22.4 disposals. What sets him apart is his ability to find the ball in contested situations, with an average of 11 contested possessions in these games. Against Hawthorn specifically, he's elevated his game even further, averaging 28.7 disposals in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 7 games and a knack for exceeding the 19.5 line, Steele is poised to be a key figure in the midfield battle. Backing him to surpass 19.5 disposals seems like a solid bet, given his recent performances and historical success against the Hawks.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jack Steele averaged 24.2 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

24.2
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.7
Marks
7.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Jack Steele recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton20056
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats2721010
11 Aug 24Richmond22085
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions23097
27 Jul 24Essendon21365
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles31195
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows190510
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans28077
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide25092
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 19.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jack Steele (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Steele is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 4 July at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.