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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harvey Thomas is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 55%, edge +18.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Harvey Thomas

GWS GIANTS

+18.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+18.1% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
19.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.7% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +18.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%—54.6%1.38+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Harvey Thomas (GWS GIANTS) Over 16.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to getting your bets over the line, Harvey Thomas of the Greater Western Sydney Giants is the man to watch. With a recent hot streak boasting a 100% hit rate in his last four games, Harvey is locked in and ready to dominate the field. Averaging an impressive 18.2 disposals per game in his last five home matches and facing off against Fremantle, where he's historically averaged 3 disposals above his overall average, the odds are stacked in his favor. His ability to find space, maintain a high disposal efficiency of 74.9%, and cover the ground with an average of 244.8 meters gained per game make him a formidable force. With everything pointing towards a standout performance, backing Harvey Thomas to surpass 16.5 disposals in this matchup is a smart bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Harvey Thomas averaged 11.3 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.0 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

11.3
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.0
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Western Bulldogs), Harvey Thomas recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs3012
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions5011
4 Aug 24Hawthorn5022
27 Jul 24Melbourne14033
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS11132
14 Jul 24Richmond16131
6 Jul 24Carlton17154
29 Jun 24Adelaide Crows9022
22 Jun 24Sydney Swans17112
16 Jun 24Port Adelaide15125
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harvey Thomas (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harvey Thomas is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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