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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 94 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 94%, implied 78%, edge +15.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Parish

Essendon

+15.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+15.5% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
94 in 100
Predicted
26.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.6% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +15.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.6%—78.1%1.07+15.5%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 18.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to footy betting, sometimes the numbers just speak for themselves, and Darcy Parish is a prime example. In his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 23.2 disposals. Facing off against the GWS Giants, who he's historically tallied around 24.4 disposals against, Parish is in a prime position to shine. With his recent form showing a solid 25 disposals per game overall, surpassing the 18.5 mark feels like a safe bet. Add in his consistent disposal efficiency of 70.1% and an impressive 349 meters gained on average, and you've got a player who knows how to find the footy and make it count. The odds may favor the Over, but Parish's track record makes it a compelling play for any footy punter.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Parish averaged 24.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

24.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.6
Marks
4.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Darcy Parish recorded 26 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions26064
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans26064
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS27054
4 Aug 24Fremantle34062
27 Jul 24St Kilda13016
11 May 24GWS GIANTS16033
4 May 24West Coast Eagles360115
25 Apr 24Collingwood25165
19 Apr 24Adelaide Crows23143
12 Apr 24Western Bulldogs22015
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Parish (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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