Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 88%, edge +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:21AM UTC
AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+0.8% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
2.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 88.6% · the book's price implies 87.7% · gap +0.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals88.6%87.7%1.13+0.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer in the AFL, you want someone who's not just hitting the scoreboard but dominating the play. Charlie Curnow of the Sydney Swans fits that bill perfectly. In his last five home games, Curnow has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a stellar 3.4 goals per game. His accuracy inside 50 has been solid at 47.4%, and he's been getting plenty of opportunities with 5.8 shots at goal on average. Facing Port Adelaide, a team he's been particularly successful against with an average of 3.7 goals in their recent matchups, Curnow is poised to continue his scoring spree. With his recent form and the Swans playing at home, where he thrives, taking the Over 1.5 goals for Charlie Curnow seems like a smart bet to snag a few majors and split the middle.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Charlie Curnow averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.7 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.7
Goals
6.0
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (11 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Charlie Curnow recorded 2 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
11 Aug 24Hawthorn2120
3 Aug 24Collingwood9052
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide19392
21 Jul 24North Melbourne15491
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs153100
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8130
30 Jun 24Richmond7230
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats13523
9 Jun 24Essendon11250
30 May 24Port Adelaide9372
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 1.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.