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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chad Warner is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 82%, edge +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:29AM UTC
AFL

Chad Warner

Sydney Swans

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+1.8% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
24.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.8% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +1.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.8%82.0%1.19+1.8%

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AI Analysis

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Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 19.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hitting those disposal numbers, Chad Warner is as reliable as they come, especially on his home turf at the SCG. Over his last five home games, Warner has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 25.8 possessions per match, including an impressive 16.6 kicks and 9.2 handballs. Against Port Adelaide, he's been even more prolific, averaging 24 disposals in their recent matchups. With an unblemished hit streak of 8 at home and 9 overall, Warner's form is red-hot. Add in his ability to find space, maintain possession efficiency, and contribute defensively with intercepts, and it's a recipe for surpassing that 19.5 line comfortably. Warner is poised to once again split the middle with his disposals and help punters snag a win on this prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Chad Warner averaged 23.5 disposals, 1.4 goals and 4.2 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

23.5
Disposals
1.4
Goals
4.2
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Chad Warner recorded 21 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions21151
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide21241
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27052
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows22131
9 Aug 24Collingwood33223
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide19038
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs11022
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions20161
13 Jul 24North Melbourne31262
7 Jul 24St Kilda23242
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals Pending

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About This Player

Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chad Warner is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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