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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brayden Fiorini is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 61%, edge +18.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:21AM UTC
AFL

Brayden Fiorini

Essendon

+18.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+18.1% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar, 8:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
20.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.7% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +18.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.7%60.6%1.27+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Brayden Fiorini (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Brayden Fiorini to go over 16.5 disposals against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Fiorini has been a magnet for the footy, averaging a whopping 22.2 disposals, well above the line set for this clash. His ability to find the pill is evident in his recent form, especially against North Melbourne where he's been averaging 21 disposals. Add in his impressive disposal efficiency of 76.3% and a knack for gaining valuable metres, and you have a player who not only finds the ball but uses it effectively. With Fiorini's trend of hitting the mark in 8 out of his last 10 home games, the smart money is on him to continue his midfield dominance and surpass the 16.5 disposal line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brayden Fiorini averaged 19.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

19.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (2 Aug 24 vs West Coast Eagles), Brayden Fiorini recorded 15 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15123
8 Jun 24St Kilda16061
2 Jun 24Essendon18060
16 May 24Geelong Cats14061
5 May 24Brisbane Lions23034
28 Apr 24West Coast Eagles14111
21 Apr 24Sydney Swans27172
13 Apr 24Hawthorn22030
7 Apr 24GWS GIANTS15132
24 Mar 24Western Bulldogs21062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brayden Fiorini (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brayden Fiorini is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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