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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 80%, edge +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:31AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Williams

Western Bulldogs

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+1.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
4.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.6% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.6%68.9%80.0%1.45+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Folks, when it comes to marking prowess in the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies, Bailey Williams is our man to watch. Looking at his recent form, Bailey has been a consistent threat in the air, averaging 3 marks per game at home and a solid 3.6 overall. In his last 5 matchups against Collingwood, he's elevated his game, snagging an average of 5.2 marks. With a line set at 2.5, Bailey has a history of surpassing this mark comfortably, especially on home turf where he's been averaging 0.4 marks inside 50. The numbers don't lie – Bailey Williams is primed to dominate the marking contest and soar over that 2.5 line. So, if you're eyeing some action on the 'Player Marks Over' market, Bailey is the man who can deliver the goods at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Williams averaged 19.0 disposals, 0.4 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

19.0
Disposals
0.4
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Bailey Williams recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn22162
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22162
18 Aug 24North Melbourne15172
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows14124
2 Aug 24Melbourne18173
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans19040
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats14041
13 Jul 24Carlton11130
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide10032
29 Jun 24North Melbourne250100
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 2.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 16.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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