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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 69%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:22AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Humphrey

Gold Coast SUNS

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+4.0% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.4% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.4%62.2%69.4%1.61+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Humphrey is primed to snag a goal against the Greater Western Sydney Giants this Sunday. Over his last 5 away games, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1 goal per game. With a solid goal accuracy of 50% and 1.2 shots per game in his recent away fixtures, Humphrey has been making his opportunities count. His involvement in scoring plays has been stellar, averaging 4 score involvements per game, showcasing his impact on the Suns' attacking setups. Facing the Giants, whom he's averaged 1 goal against in their last 5 encounters, Humphrey's form and recent goal-scoring trends make him a strong bet to find the back of the net in this matchup. Backing Bailey to bag one is a smart move given his recent performance and scoring history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Humphrey averaged 10.4 disposals, 0.7 goals and 1.9 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

10.4
Disposals
0.7
Goals
1.9
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Bailey Humphrey recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond10030
17 Aug 24Melbourne8033
10 Aug 24Essendon9121
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles10005
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions17035
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS13133
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide12252
6 Jul 24North Melbourne6000
29 Jun 24Collingwood6020
23 Jun 24Fremantle4014
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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