Angus Anderson (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Angus Anderson's away form is the key reason to back him kicking at least one goal here. In his last seven away games he's hit this line in six of them — an 86% hit rate — and his L5 away average of 1.2 goals per game sits comfortably above the 0.5 line. Crucially, he's averaging two shots at goal away from home with a 53% conversion rate, which is a genuinely efficient combination. His L5 record against Hawthorn adds further confidence, with a 1.0-goal average in those matchups.
The model projects exactly one goal, generating a 14.1% edge over the implied 55.6% probability baked into the $1.80 price — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on. The overall L5 numbers look softer, but the away-specific splits are what matter here, and they paint a consistent picture of a forward who finds the big sticks on the road.