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Model picks & player props
Derby County
VS
Burnley

Derby County vs Burnley Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 18, 12:51AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Turf Moor, Burnley
Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:00PM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
No Both Teams to Score +105

The model graded 4 markets for Derby County vs Burnley (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $205 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:00PM at Turf Moor.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.8%
The price says46.5%
Best price+105
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Both Teams to Score No Lean53% chance +105
Draw No Bet Long-shot31% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot22% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot22% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Burnley are the model's favourite to beat Derby County, with a 72% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 19 Sep, 2:00PM at Turf Moor. Best bet: No at +105.
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 75 of 157 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 14
AS Roma
AS Roma @ Torino
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $123
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Both Teams to Score
No
+105
+ 3 more markets
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All 4 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,348+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
NoBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Derby CountyDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Derby CountyHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Derby CountyMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Burnley on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Burnley
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Derby County

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Derby County vs Burnley: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDerby County @ BurnleyNo line posted
2-7-11Burnley form 2023-24
Derby County28%Home form2-7-11

Burnley vs Derby County moneyline.

Derby County @ Burnley — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Derby County at Burnley — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Derby County @ Burnley — where the money went

Since betting opened on Derby County at Burnley, the market has moved away from Burnley across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Burnley -1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Derby County 0.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Burnley -0.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Derby County 1▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 2.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Derby County vs Burnley in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Saturday 19 September 2026 at Turf Moor. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

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