MLS model board
Live 14 games · next 7 days · version 3 of 6 · updated Thu 10 Sep, 10:28 pm ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v3 · 3 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30p | New York Red BullsatColumbus Crew SC | -0.6 | -1.5 | +0.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 49% | +103 | +279 |
| Sat 7:30p | Atlanta United FCatD.C. United | -0.1 | -1.5 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 43% | +133 | +236 |
| Sat 7:30p | Charlotte FCatFC Cincinnati | -0.7 | -1.5 | +0.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 50% | +102 | +281 |
| Sat 7:30p | Nashville SCatInter Miami CF | -0.9 | -1.5 | +0.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 51% | -105 | +293 |
| Sat 7:30p | Toronto FCatOrlando City SC | -1.2 | -1.5 | +0.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 55% | -121 | +324 |
| Sat 8:30p | Portland TimbersatFC Dallas | -0.4 | -1.5 | +1.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 45% | +124 | +247 |
| Sat 8:30p | Los Angeles FCatSporting Kansas City | 8 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 8:30p | Minnesota United FCatSt. Louis City SC | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 9:30p | CF MontrealatColorado Rapids | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 9:30p | New York City FCatReal Salt Lake | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 10:30p | Seattle Sounders FCatLA Galaxy | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 10:30p | Houston DynamoatSan Jose Earthquakes | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 5:30p | New England RevolutionatChicago Fire | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 6:30p | Austin FCatVancouver Whitecaps FC | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v3Sat 12 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 10:28 pm ETMarket refresh · 12 games
v3Sun 13 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 10:28 pm ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v2Sat 12 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:18 am ETMarket refresh · 12 games
v2Sun 13 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:18 am ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v1Sat 12 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:53 am ETOpening board · 12 games
v1Sun 13 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 4:53 am ETOpening board · 2 games
Player props this week · 36 players · 43 markets across 14 games · our projection at the main line
v1 · 3 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under | Market over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30p | Robert VoloderBulls at SC | Shots | 0.5 | 0.4 | 46% | +116 | -116 | +230 |
| Sat 7:30p | Robin JanssonFC at SC | Shots | 0.5 | 0.3 | 44% | +130 | -130 | +135 |
| Sat 7:30p | Jack MaherSC at CF | Shots | 0.5 | 0.3 | 42% | +138 | -138 | +230 |
| Sat 7:30p | Sean NealisFC at United | Shots | 0.5 | 0.2 | 41% | +147 | -147 | +240 |
| Sat 7:30p | Daniel LovitzSC at CF | Shots on target | 0.5 | 0.1 | 24% | +321 | -321 | +1100 |
| Sat 7:30p | Tim ParkerBulls at SC | Shots on target | 0.5 | 0 | 22% | +350 | -350 | +800 |
| Sat 7:30p | Jeisson PalaciosSC at CF | Assists | 37 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Markus CimermancicFC at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Jackson GilmanFC at SC | Anytime scorer | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Enea MihajFC at United | Anytime scorer | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Enea MihajFC at United | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Edvard TagsethSC at CF | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Tim ParkerBulls at SC | Assists | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Zakaria TaifiFC at SC | Shots on target | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Tim ParkerBulls at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Daniel LovitzSC at CF | Anytime scorer | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Cooper SanchezFC at United | Shots on target | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Yannick BrightSC at CF | Shots on target | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Omar ValenciaBulls at SC | Shots on target | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Dylan NealisBulls at SC | Anytime scorer | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Walker ZimmermanFC at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Cooper SanchezFC at United | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Steven MoreiraBulls at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Elias SaadSC at CF | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Facundo MuraSC at CF | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Cade CowellBulls at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Derrick Etienne Jr.FC at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Elias SaadSC at CF | Shots on target | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Hosei KijimaFC at United | Shots | ····· | |||||
| Sat 7:30p | Iván AnguloFC at SC | Shots | ····· | |||||
13 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this week · 6 market types · 257 main lines across 14 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v5 · 1 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | New York Red Bulls | 0.8 | 46% | +119 | -115 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | New York Red Bulls | 2.5 | 81% | -421 | -833 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | New York Red Bulls | 3.5 | 92% | -1171 | -3333 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | New York Red Bulls | 4.5 | 97% | -3604 | -10000 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | Columbus Crew SC | -0.2 | 56% | -126 | -175 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | Columbus Crew SC | 1.5 | 88% | -750 | -1667 |
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Spread | Columbus Crew SC | 251 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | Bulls at SC | Both teams to score | No | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | Atlanta United FC | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | Atlanta United FC | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | Atlanta United FC | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | D.C. United | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | D.C. United | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Spread | D.C. United | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Both teams to score | No | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Draw no bet | D.C. United | ····· | |||
| Sat 7:30p | FC at United | Moneyline | Draw | ····· | |||
227 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 7:30p | Orlando City SCatAtlanta United FC | 0.0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 41% | +145 | +225 |
| Wed 7:30p | Columbus Crew SCatD.C. United | +0.4 | +1.5 | -1.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 38% | +164 | +209 |
| Wed 7:30p | Nashville SCatToronto FC | 0.0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 42% | +139 | +231 |
| Wed 7:30p | Charlotte FCatCF Montreal | -0.3 | -1.5 | +1.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 42% | +140 | +229 |
| Wed 7:45p | FC CincinnatiatPhiladelphia Union | -0.3 | -1.5 | +1.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 46% | +120 | +253 |
| Wed 8:00p | New England RevolutionatNew York City FC | -1.0 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 52% | -108 | +300 |
| Wed 8:30p | Colorado RapidsatAustin FC | -0.4 | -1.5 | +1.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 47% | +111 | +265 |
| Wed 8:30p | FC DallasatMinnesota United FC | -0.6 | -1.5 | +0.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 49% | +106 | +274 |
| Wed 8:30p | Real Salt LakeatHouston Dynamo | -0.2 | -1.5 | +1.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 46% | +117 | +257 |
| Wed 8:30p | Inter Miami CFatChicago Fire | +0.4 | -1.5 | +1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 38% | +162 | +210 |
| Wed 10:30p | San Jose EarthquakesatSan Diego FC | -0.7 | -2.5 | +1.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 52% | -107 | +298 |
| Wed 10:30p | New York Red BullsatLos Angeles FC | -0.6 | -1.5 | +0.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 47% | +111 | +266 |
| Wed 10:30p | LA GalaxyatVancouver Whitecaps FC | -0.1 | -1.5 | +1.4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 43% | +134 | +235 |
| Wed 10:30p | St. Louis City SCatPortland Timbers | -0.8 | -1.5 | +0.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 51% | -103 | +289 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
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