MLB model board
Live 12 games · next 7 days · version 9 of 13 · updated Thu 10 Sep, 11:28 pm ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v9 · 1 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 7:41p | Pittsburgh PiratesatChicago White Sox | +2.0 | +1.5 | +0.5 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 33% | +201 | -201 |
| Fri 6:41p | Colorado RockiesatDetroit Tigers | -2.9 | -1.5 | -1.4 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 83% | -477 | +477 |
| Fri 6:46p | Los Angeles AngelsatWashington Nationals | +0.3 | -1.5 | +1.8 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 49% | +103 | -103 |
| Fri 7:06p | New York MetsatNew York Yankees | +0.1 | -1.5 | +1.6 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 50% | -101 | +101 |
| Fri 7:08p | Baltimore OriolesatToronto Blue Jays | -2.1 | 0.0 | -2.1 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 73% | -274 | +274 |
| Fri 7:11p | Kansas City RoyalsatBoston Red Sox | -0.4 | -1.5 | +1.1 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 57% | -133 | +133 |
| Fri 7:11p | Houston AstrosatTampa Bay Rays | 6 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Fri 7:16p | Philadelphia PhilliesatAtlanta Braves | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 7:46p | Cincinnati RedsatMilwaukee Brewers | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 8:11p | Cleveland GuardiansatMinnesota Twins | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 8:16p | Chicago White SoxatSt. Louis Cardinals | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 10:16p | San Diego PadresatSan Francisco Giants | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v9Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 6:14 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v8Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:10 pm ETRefresh · 3 games
v7Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 12:05 pm ETMarket refresh · 5 games
v6Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 8:04 am ETMarket refresh · 5 games
v5Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:04 am ETMarket refresh · 5 games
v4Thu 10 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 12:03 am ETMarket refresh · 5 games
v4Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 11:28 pm ETMarket refresh · 11 games
v3Thu 10 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 11:19 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v3Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 8:14 pm ETRefresh · 11 games
v2Thu 10 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 8:07 pm ETRefresh · 5 games
v2Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 6:14 pm ETRefresh · 10 games
v1Thu 10 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 6:18 pm ETOpening board · 1 games
v1Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:10 pm ETOpening board · 7 games
Player props this week · 241 players · 2116 markets across 12 games · our projection at the main line
v8 · 1 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under | Market over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 7:41p | Nick GonzalesPirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 63% | -169 | +169 | -303 |
| Thu 7:41p | Rafael FloresPirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | 0.5 | 0.9 | 61% | -156 | +156 | +148 |
| Thu 7:41p | Jake MangumPirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 61% | -153 | +153 | -263 |
| Thu 7:41p | Sam AntonacciPirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 59% | -146 | +146 | -244 |
| Thu 7:41p | Oneil CruzPirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 0.9 | 58% | -141 | +141 | -238 |
| Thu 7:41p | Bryan ReynoldsPirates at Sox | Batter hits | 0.5 | 0.9 | 58% | -139 | +139 | -180 |
| Thu 7:41p | Rafael FloresPirates at Sox | Batter hits | 2110 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Andrew BenintendiPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Brandon LowePirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Bryan ReynoldsPirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Rafael FloresPirates at Sox | Batter total bases | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Andrew BenintendiPirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Miguel VargasPirates at Sox | Batter strikeouts | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Spencer HorwitzPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Jake MangumPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Jared TrioloPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Konnor GriffinPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Nick GonzalesPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Rafael FloresPirates at Sox | Batter singles | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Spencer HorwitzPirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Konnor GriffinPirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Brandon LowePirates at Sox | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Oneil CruzPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Rafael FloresPirates at Sox | Batter rbis | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Sam AntonacciPirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Brandon LowePirates at Sox | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Jake MangumPirates at Sox | Batter singles | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Bryan ReynoldsPirates at Sox | Batter total bases | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Jake RogersPirates at Sox | Batter strikeouts | ····· | |||||
| Thu 7:41p | Chase MeidrothPirates at Sox | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
2086 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this week · 7 market types · 433 main lines across 12 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v10 · 1 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -6.5 | 7% | +1310 | +1060 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -5.5 | 10% | +906 | +750 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -5 | 11% | +827 | +710 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -4.5 | 14% | +599 | +560 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -4 | 25% | +300 | +485 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | -3.5 | 21% | +384 | +390 |
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | 427 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Thu 7:40p | Pirates at Sox | Total | Over | ····· | |||
403 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 12:15p | Tampa Bay RaysatAtlanta Braves | +0.7 | -1.5 | +2.2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 51% | -102 | +102 |
| Thu 1:06p | Houston AstrosatPhiladelphia Phillies | +3.4 | -1.5 | +4.9 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 27% | +277 | -277 |
| Thu 4:10p | Texas RangersatSeattle Mariners | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 70% | -228 | +228 |
| Thu 7:05p | Colorado RockiesatNew York Yankees | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 78% | -363 | +363 |
| Thu 7:41p | Pittsburgh PiratesatChicago White Sox | +2.0 | +1.5 | +0.5 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 33% | +201 | -201 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
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